Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation

1. Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, I was able to research many interesting facts about the future climate of Costa Rica. Within most of the first article I read, I found that most of the research pointed to annual precipitation decreasing in the future, while the already dry Spring season will become increasingly more dry. The MMD model also agrees with the possibility of there  being a decrease in precipitation in the future, but also states that this may be modified due to an increase in rainfall in storms. For example, it is already known that tropical cyclones and hurricanes are big providers and important contributors to precipitation and according to research, these storms may add another source of uncertainty to regional scenarios in climate change. The future precipitation for summer time in Costa Rica may affect changes in hurricane tracks and intensities. These changes in location and intensity are a main concern for Costa Rica. (Regional Climate Projections)

2.  Costa Rica's biggest threat for the future will be the rise in sea-level, which is expected to cause an increase in flooding. Another risk for the future of Costa Rica will be deforestation. Tropical cloud forests, which are found in Costa Rica and in mountainous regions, will be threatened if the temperature increases by just 1 or 2 degrees C throughout the next 50 years. This is due to the altitude changes of the cloud-base during the dry season. These changes could have a detrimental effect on the diversity and composition of species. In Monteverde, Costa Rica, these changes have already began; there is a decline in mist days, which is in association with the decrease in the amount of amphibians, birds and reptiles (Pounds et al., 1999). A positive that is probable to come out of all of this is that the forests will most likely be replaced with an ecosystem that will be more resistant to the stressed that come along with in the increased temperatures, droughts and wild-fires. (Specific Climate Impacts)

(Climate Change Costa Rica)

3.  As stated previously, the future of Costa Rica will show a drop in the amount of precipitation; this will eventually lead to a shortage of available drinking water for the people. By the year 2050, it is estimated that about 50% of agricultural lands will be subject to desertification and salinization- the latter referring to salt contents in the soil. It is also assumed that not only dairy products, but cattle as well, will decline due to the increase in temperatures. "Recent developments in the meteorological forecasting techniques could improve the quality of information necessary for peoples welfare and security." Although, there are many factors that outweigh the effectiveness of these recent develops; such as: "lack of basic information, observation and monitoring systems, lack of political, institutional and technological frameworks, low income and settlements in vulnerable areas" (Detailed Look at Future Climate).

4. The most interesting threat to Costa Rica would have to be the decline in precipitation. This not only has an effect on the land, but also on the people and the species! With a lack of drinking water likely to occur in the future, due to the expected increases in the rise of sea-level, people and animals will no longer be able to survive. Species, such as plants, will rapidly begin to die away. Although, some plant species will be able to adapt to the changing environment, most will not be able to keep up with the rising temperatures.

CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA
CAM	DJF	1.4	2.2	2.6	3.5	4.6	15	-57	-18	-14	-9	0	>100	96	2	25
	MAM	1.9	2.7	3.6	3.8	5.2	10	-46	-25	-16	-10	15	75	100	2	18
10N,116W	JJA	1.8	2.7	3.4	3.6	5.5	10	-44	-25	-9	-4	12	90	100		24
to	SON	2.0	2.7	3.2	3.7	4.6	10	-45	-10	-4	7	24		100		15
30N,83W	Annual	1.8	2.6	3.2	3.6	5.0	10	-48	-16	-9	-5	9	65	100	2	33
AMZ	DJF	1.7	2.4	3.0	3.7	4.6	10	-13	0	4	11	17	>100	93	27	4
	MAM	1.7	2.5	3.0	3.7	4.6	10	-13	-1	1	4	14		100	18
20S,82W	JJA	2.0	2.7	3.5	3.9	5.6	10	-38	-10	-3	2	13		100
to	SON	1.8	2.8	3.5	4.1	5.4	10	-35	-12	-2	8	21		100
12N,34W	Annual	1.8	2.6	3.3	3.7	5.1	10	-21	-3	0	6	14		100
SSA	DJF	1.5	2.5	2.7	3.3	4.3	10	-16	-2	1	7	10		100
	MAM	1.8	2.3	2.6	3.0	4.2	15	-11	-2	1	5	7		98	8
56S,76W	JJA	1.7	2.1	2.4	2.8	3.6	15	-20	-7	0	3	17		95
to	SON	1.8	2.2	2.7	3.2	4.0	15	-20	-12	1	6	11		99
20S,40W	Annual	1.7	2.3	2.5	3.1	3.9	10	-12	-1	3	5	7		100

The chart above shows the regional averages of temperature and precipitation projections from a set of 21 global models in the MMD for the A1B scenario 

Severe Weather in Costa Rica

    There are three steps that need to occur in order for a tornado to form. The first formation is  the vortex tube, which is a rotating body of air that starts on the ground. The vortex tube occurs because of vertical wind sheer. Next, the air, which is rotating horizontally, is then lifted off the ground by the updrafts from a thunderstorm. Once the rotating air mass is lifted almost vertically, the formation is considered a mesocyclone. The mesocyclone fully develops in the updraft of a thunderstorm; the tornado then descends from the rotating wall cloud in the lower part of the cloud (Griswold, lecture 19).

    In the United States, tornadoes typically travel from southwest to northeast.(erh.noaa) This movement is due to the "certain tornado-producing weather patterns." An example of this would be "hurricanes in South Texas or northwest-flow weather systems in the upper midwest" (web apps). The average number of tornadoes observed in the United States per year is about 1253 (ncdc.noaa). Tornadoes do not typically happen in Costa Rica(serendepityadventures) because "the weather does not get pushed along by frontal systems, like the Jet Stream or hurricanes" (insidecostarica). On June 5, 2013, a tornado hit Costa Rica, which was a rare occurrence. Within 30 minutes, the tornado tore through the town of Calle Valverde in Naranjo de Alajuela, causing damage. There were no life-threatening injuries, but at least 15 homes reported damage because of the tornado (insidecostarica.com).

Using the above map, Costa Rica is located to the south Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador, which only had 3-5 tornadoes in the years between 2000-2008. Costa Rica is shaded in grey, meaning they have no tornado occurrences. 

    Over the years, tornado occurrences have appeared to increase. I do not believe that tornado occurrences have actually increased, but I do, however, believe that technology advancements have allowed researchers and data collectors to observe and keep track of more tornado occurrences.

    There are three main requirements for hurricane formation. The first is warm ocean temperatures. This is necessary for the formation of hurricanes because a lot of evaporation is required. Next, deep warm ocean layer in depth is required so that when the winds churn up the water, the water will remain warm. Lastly, coriolis is needed to initiate the spinning (Griswold, lecture 20). 

    There are three terminologies for hurricanes, depending on where in the world they occur. Hurricanes occur in the Atlantic and East Pacific. Cyclones occur in the Indian Ocean near Australia. Last, Typhoons occur along the coast of China and Indonesia.

In the United States, the general path of hurricanes is the same as the path of tornadoes, as mentioned previously; southwest to northeast. The trade winds carry the hurricane while over water and are moved via the westerlies once at a higher latitude. (map)

     Hurricanes rarely happen in Costa Rica (aoml.noaa) because of it's location. When a hurricane is nearby, Costa Rica may experience an increase in rainfall, but a direct hit from a hurricane is rare (costarica.com). 

Daily Weather in Costa Rica

     For todays blog, I will be discussing the five day forecast for San Jose, Costa Rica. This forecast will be starting on March 30th and cover up to April 3rd. The forecasted high for Sunday, March 30th is 92 degrees F, while the forecasted low is 61 degrees F with a 0% chance of precipitation. The forecasted high for Monday, March 31st is 86 degrees F, while the forecasted low is 61 degrees with a 0% chance of precipitation. The forecasted high for Tuesday, April 1st is 87 degrees F, while the forecasted low is 62 degrees F with a 0% chance of precipitation. The forecasted high for Wednesday, April 2nd is 86 degrees F, while the forecasted low is 62 degrees F with a 0% chance of precipitation. The forecasted high for Thursday, April 3rd is 86 degrees F, while the forecasted low is 63 degrees F with a 10% chance of precipitation. As we can see, the weather looks like it will be staying fairly consistent with little to no precipitation.

       Above is a current satellite image of Costa Rica thanks to WunderMap.  As seen in the satellite image, there are currently no clouds to be seen. Costa Rica is experiencing clear skies. Due to the fact that Costa Rica is experiencing a clear night, I will talk about the terrain surrounding San Jose. San Jose is very lush and dark green. The dark green color shows forested areas. After zooming in quite a bit, the surrounding areas of San Jose are a light brown shade, which indicates desert areas. The closest lake to San Jose is located to the northwest and is called Lake Arenal. The closest volcano to San Jose is located to the north and is called Poas Volcano National Park.

       These next three images will show a zoomed in satellite image of Costa Rica, a full satellite image of Mexico and a full satellite view of South America. The three images will be showing the regional patterns of low and high pressure and fronts.  Unfortunately, as seen in the zoomed image of Costa Rica, the satellite image shows an isobar of 1012 mb. I chose to show full satellite images of both South America and Mexico since Costa Rica lies perfectly between the two. As seen in the full satellite image of Mexico, in the region closest to Costa Rica, a high pressure system can be seen. To the northwest of Mexico a low pressure system can be seen with a cold front moving in. In the full satellite image of South America, which is southeast of Costa Rica, a mixture of high and low pressure systems can be seen along with multiple weather fronts to the south of the country. A low pressure system can be seen over Bolivia and Paraguay, while right below in Argentina, a high pressure system can be seen. On the west side of South America, in Chile, another low pressure system can be seen as well as to the East over Uruguay. To the far east of South America, over the Atlantic Ocean, more high pressure weather systems can be seen. To the left of South America, over the Pacific Ocean, a cold weather front can be seen moving in, along with a warm front to the south. To the right of South America, over the Atlantic Ocean, a stationary front can be seen. Starting over Paraguay and heading south to the Atlantic Ocean another cold front can be seen.  The isobars located nearest to Costa Rica, located over Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela, show a pressure of 1008 mb. From this information, we can conclude that Costa Rica is experiencing low pressure systems. (Images from Intellicast).

Global and Local Winds in Costa Rica

Costa Rica is located at 10 degrees North, 84 degrees West (maps of the world). This means that Costa Rica is located in the North-western hemisphere. Costa Rica lies smack in the middle of the Hadley Cell and resides in the trade wind belt. The trade winds travel towards the equator because of the Coriolis. This region also lies close to the Westerlies, which travel toward the poles. Because Costa Rica is in the Hadley Cell, the wind direction blows from the North-east. As the air rises at the equator, it travels north causing the air to subside in the Horse Latitudes. Costa Rica is located almost exactly between a low pressure belt, the Equatorial low, and a high pressure belt, the Subtropical high.  The Equatorial low is also known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone and is rising moist, hot air with a lot of precipitation. Costa Rica lies right in the zone that receives a lot of precipitable water. Lastly, because of its location in the Hadley Cell, Costa Rica lies close to the Doldrums; this is where the trade winds meet.

Due to Costa Rica's location, with regards to the major cell, wind belts and pressure belts, one can see the climate is subtropical-tropical and the weather is mostly fair during the dry season and experiences some precipitation during the wet season. Being located so close to the Equatorial low, which is near the equator, one can imagine Costa Rica can be very warm-hot and humid. This humidity is also due to the Equatorial low and the rising moist, hot air in this region. Costa Rica is located in a interesting region, though, because they are also very close to the Subtropical highs, which is where the westerlies and the trade winds originate. As previously stated, the winds blow from the North-east, meaning the wind blows leeward. Costa Rica is far from the poles and the polar front, which is why this region does not typically experience temperatures lower than 65 degrees F.

image

Costa Rica has five mountain ranges: Central Mountain Range, Talamanca Mountain Range, Tilaran Mountain Range, Guanacaste Mountain Range and Escazu Hills(ranges). Five types of breezes or winds that are associated with mountains are: Valley breezes, Mountain breezes, Chinook winds, Katabatic winds and Foehn winds. Costa Rica experiences both Valley and Mountain breezes. Valley Breezes occur during the daytime in Costa Rica. This is when the sun warms the valley walls during the day. Mountain Breezes occur at night in Costa Rica. This is when there is radiation cooling of the valley walls. The heat is quickly lost from the valley walls and the cool air flows downward. Costa Rica lies of the coast of the Pacific Ocean and of the Caribbean Sea. There are two types of breezes associated with coastlines: Land and Sea Breezes. Costa Rica experiences land breezes at night when the land cools more quickly than the water, which causes higher pressure to be located over the land. Costa Rica experiences sea breezes during the day when the land heats more quickly than the ocean, which causes higher pressure to be located over the ocean.

Typical Weather and Tourism in Costa Rica

1. Weather on the Winter Solstice
 This year in Costa Rica, the Winter Solstice will occur on December 21, 2014. During the month of December, the average maximum temperature is around 81 degrees F. The average minimum temperature during December is around 66 degrees F. According to weatherspark.com, the temperature stays in the comfortable zone (65 degrees F- 75 degrees F) 65% of the time during December and in the warm zone (75 degrees F-85 degrees F) 33% of the time. The type of precipitation likely to occur on the Winter solstice is light rain, moderate rain and drizzle. According to weatherspark.com, drizzle  is observed 19% of the days and is most likely to occur around December 1st. Lightly rain is likely to occur 39% of the days and is most likely to happen around December 3rd. Moderate rain is observe 32% of the days and is likely to occur around December 1st. The good news about this is most of the precipitation happens in the beginning of the month, so tourists should plan to visit either in the middle of near the end of December. December Weather

2.  Weather on the Summer Solstice
This year in Costa Rica, the Summer Solstice will occur on June 21, 2014. During the month of June, the average maximum temperature is around 80 degrees F. The average minimum temperature is around 68 degrees F. According to weatherspark.com, the temperature stays in the comfortable zone (65-75 degrees F) 47% of the time, while 59% of the time, the temperature is in the warm zone (75-85 degrees F).  The type of precipitation likely to occur on the Summer Solstice is thunderstorms, moderate rain and light rain. According to weatherspark.com, thunderstorms are observed 54% of the days  and are most likely to occur around June 2nd. Moderate rain is observed 19% of the days and is likely to occur around June 16th. Light rain is observed 15% of the days and is likely to occur around June 21st. Unfortunately, the Summer Solstice occurs during the wet season, so this may not be a good month for tourists to book a trip. June Weather

3. Weather on the Spring Equinox
The Spring Equinox will occur on March 20, 2014 this year. The average maximum temperature for the month of March is 81 degrees F, while the average minimum temperature during this month is 68 degrees F. According to weatherspark.com, the temperature stays in the comfort zone (65-75 degrees F) 44% of the time, while the temperature stays in the warm zone (75-85 degrees F) 64% of the time. The type of precipitation likely to occur on the Spring Equinox is moderate rain, thunderstorms, light rain and drizzle. According to weatherspark.com, moderate rain is observed 31% of the days and is most likely to occur around March 21st.  Thunderstorms are observed 28% of the days and are most likely to occur around March 31st. Light rain is observed 21% of the days and is most likely to occur around March 22nd. Drizzle is observed 12% of the days and is most likely to occur around March 10th. It seems as though most of the precipitation happens at the end of March, so I would recommend tourists plan a trip the beginning of March, if this is a time they are looking to travel. March Weather

4. Weather on the Autumnal Equinox
The Autumnal Equinox will occur on September 23, 2014. The average maximum temperature for the month of September is 80 degrees F, while the average minimum temperature for this month is 67 degrees F. According to weatherspark.com, the temperature stays in the comfort zone (65-75 degrees F) 52% of the time and stays in the warm zone (75-85 degrees F) 51% of the time. The precipitation likely to occur on the Autumnal Equinox is thunderstorms, moderate rain and light rain. According to weatherspark.com, thunderstorms are observed 56% of the days and are most likely to occur around September 6th. Moderate rain is observed 18% of the days and is most likely to occur around September 26th. Light rain is observed 18% of the days and is most likely to occur around September 22nd. September Weather

5. Travel Agent Advice
Out of all four seasons, I would recommend tourists to come during the winter season. I would recommend the winter season because it is part of the dry season, so tourists will experience the most sunshine and best beach weather during these months. Due to the minimal amount of precipitation during this season, two great activities I would recommend to tourists would be to explore the rain forests and to attend Bull fights. The great thing about visiting Costa Rica during the dry/winter season is the fact that between the months of December and March the rainfall is 2.63 inches! This means no having to worry about planning for a rainy vacation because the likelihood of rain or thunderstorms is very low during this time of year. Visit Costa Rica

Costa Rica Image

Come experience "la pura vida" of Costa Rica :)

 Weather Spark