Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation

1. Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, I was able to research many interesting facts about the future climate of Costa Rica. Within most of the first article I read, I found that most of the research pointed to annual precipitation decreasing in the future, while the already dry Spring season will become increasingly more dry. The MMD model also agrees with the possibility of there  being a decrease in precipitation in the future, but also states that this may be modified due to an increase in rainfall in storms. For example, it is already known that tropical cyclones and hurricanes are big providers and important contributors to precipitation and according to research, these storms may add another source of uncertainty to regional scenarios in climate change. The future precipitation for summer time in Costa Rica may affect changes in hurricane tracks and intensities. These changes in location and intensity are a main concern for Costa Rica. (Regional Climate Projections)

2.  Costa Rica's biggest threat for the future will be the rise in sea-level, which is expected to cause an increase in flooding. Another risk for the future of Costa Rica will be deforestation. Tropical cloud forests, which are found in Costa Rica and in mountainous regions, will be threatened if the temperature increases by just 1 or 2 degrees C throughout the next 50 years. This is due to the altitude changes of the cloud-base during the dry season. These changes could have a detrimental effect on the diversity and composition of species. In Monteverde, Costa Rica, these changes have already began; there is a decline in mist days, which is in association with the decrease in the amount of amphibians, birds and reptiles (Pounds et al., 1999). A positive that is probable to come out of all of this is that the forests will most likely be replaced with an ecosystem that will be more resistant to the stressed that come along with in the increased temperatures, droughts and wild-fires. (Specific Climate Impacts)

(Climate Change Costa Rica)

3.  As stated previously, the future of Costa Rica will show a drop in the amount of precipitation; this will eventually lead to a shortage of available drinking water for the people. By the year 2050, it is estimated that about 50% of agricultural lands will be subject to desertification and salinization- the latter referring to salt contents in the soil. It is also assumed that not only dairy products, but cattle as well, will decline due to the increase in temperatures. "Recent developments in the meteorological forecasting techniques could improve the quality of information necessary for peoples welfare and security." Although, there are many factors that outweigh the effectiveness of these recent develops; such as: "lack of basic information, observation and monitoring systems, lack of political, institutional and technological frameworks, low income and settlements in vulnerable areas" (Detailed Look at Future Climate).

4. The most interesting threat to Costa Rica would have to be the decline in precipitation. This not only has an effect on the land, but also on the people and the species! With a lack of drinking water likely to occur in the future, due to the expected increases in the rise of sea-level, people and animals will no longer be able to survive. Species, such as plants, will rapidly begin to die away. Although, some plant species will be able to adapt to the changing environment, most will not be able to keep up with the rising temperatures.

CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA
CAM	DJF	1.4	2.2	2.6	3.5	4.6	15	-57	-18	-14	-9	0	>100	96	2	25
	MAM	1.9	2.7	3.6	3.8	5.2	10	-46	-25	-16	-10	15	75	100	2	18
10N,116W	JJA	1.8	2.7	3.4	3.6	5.5	10	-44	-25	-9	-4	12	90	100		24
to	SON	2.0	2.7	3.2	3.7	4.6	10	-45	-10	-4	7	24		100		15
30N,83W	Annual	1.8	2.6	3.2	3.6	5.0	10	-48	-16	-9	-5	9	65	100	2	33
AMZ	DJF	1.7	2.4	3.0	3.7	4.6	10	-13	0	4	11	17	>100	93	27	4
	MAM	1.7	2.5	3.0	3.7	4.6	10	-13	-1	1	4	14		100	18
20S,82W	JJA	2.0	2.7	3.5	3.9	5.6	10	-38	-10	-3	2	13		100
to	SON	1.8	2.8	3.5	4.1	5.4	10	-35	-12	-2	8	21		100
12N,34W	Annual	1.8	2.6	3.3	3.7	5.1	10	-21	-3	0	6	14		100
SSA	DJF	1.5	2.5	2.7	3.3	4.3	10	-16	-2	1	7	10		100
	MAM	1.8	2.3	2.6	3.0	4.2	15	-11	-2	1	5	7		98	8
56S,76W	JJA	1.7	2.1	2.4	2.8	3.6	15	-20	-7	0	3	17		95
to	SON	1.8	2.2	2.7	3.2	4.0	15	-20	-12	1	6	11		99
20S,40W	Annual	1.7	2.3	2.5	3.1	3.9	10	-12	-1	3	5	7		100

The chart above shows the regional averages of temperature and precipitation projections from a set of 21 global models in the MMD for the A1B scenario 

Severe Weather in Costa Rica

    There are three steps that need to occur in order for a tornado to form. The first formation is  the vortex tube, which is a rotating body of air that starts on the ground. The vortex tube occurs because of vertical wind sheer. Next, the air, which is rotating horizontally, is then lifted off the ground by the updrafts from a thunderstorm. Once the rotating air mass is lifted almost vertically, the formation is considered a mesocyclone. The mesocyclone fully develops in the updraft of a thunderstorm; the tornado then descends from the rotating wall cloud in the lower part of the cloud (Griswold, lecture 19).

    In the United States, tornadoes typically travel from southwest to northeast.(erh.noaa) This movement is due to the "certain tornado-producing weather patterns." An example of this would be "hurricanes in South Texas or northwest-flow weather systems in the upper midwest" (web apps). The average number of tornadoes observed in the United States per year is about 1253 (ncdc.noaa). Tornadoes do not typically happen in Costa Rica(serendepityadventures) because "the weather does not get pushed along by frontal systems, like the Jet Stream or hurricanes" (insidecostarica). On June 5, 2013, a tornado hit Costa Rica, which was a rare occurrence. Within 30 minutes, the tornado tore through the town of Calle Valverde in Naranjo de Alajuela, causing damage. There were no life-threatening injuries, but at least 15 homes reported damage because of the tornado (insidecostarica.com).

Using the above map, Costa Rica is located to the south Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador, which only had 3-5 tornadoes in the years between 2000-2008. Costa Rica is shaded in grey, meaning they have no tornado occurrences. 

    Over the years, tornado occurrences have appeared to increase. I do not believe that tornado occurrences have actually increased, but I do, however, believe that technology advancements have allowed researchers and data collectors to observe and keep track of more tornado occurrences.

    There are three main requirements for hurricane formation. The first is warm ocean temperatures. This is necessary for the formation of hurricanes because a lot of evaporation is required. Next, deep warm ocean layer in depth is required so that when the winds churn up the water, the water will remain warm. Lastly, coriolis is needed to initiate the spinning (Griswold, lecture 20). 

    There are three terminologies for hurricanes, depending on where in the world they occur. Hurricanes occur in the Atlantic and East Pacific. Cyclones occur in the Indian Ocean near Australia. Last, Typhoons occur along the coast of China and Indonesia.

In the United States, the general path of hurricanes is the same as the path of tornadoes, as mentioned previously; southwest to northeast. The trade winds carry the hurricane while over water and are moved via the westerlies once at a higher latitude. (map)

     Hurricanes rarely happen in Costa Rica (aoml.noaa) because of it's location. When a hurricane is nearby, Costa Rica may experience an increase in rainfall, but a direct hit from a hurricane is rare (costarica.com).